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Joined 3 years ago
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Cake day: June 16th, 2023

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  • Problem as evidenced by a lot of outsourcing success is that the people cutting the checks are not fazed by broken software.

    This applies to a lot of industries where laypeople are at the mercy of ‘expertise’, a lot of folks doing things like HVAC or auto mechanics are actually not that good, and while they are the bane of the good HVAC and mechanics, they manage to secure market share just fine. Yes, there are mechanics that have crappier mechanics to thank for them having some stuff to fix, but the crappy mechanics can do easy stuff fine and lots of people driving with something busted because the mechanic couldn’t figure it out and told the customer “yeah, it actually is normal for it to be that way”.





  • The problem was that things started breaking at scale under the gold standard. The great depression happened under the gold standard, and financial institutions had no ability to do anything to fix the mass hysteria.

    Yes, the house as an investment vehicle rather than a house is a problem, but it’s not because of fiat currency per se. The population density increasing under a capitalistic system pretty much guarantees that housing becomes a speculative asset regardless of the specifics of the currency system.

    Meanwhile BTC has been wildly unpredictable and when it’s at its most hyped, massively deflationary which is also a terrible thing.





  • While it’s true that some demand is related, the vast vast majority of the spend is speculative on what AI might be and assuming that if it manages to be the thing of their dreams, it will demand exponentially more resources than the current LLM slop.

    They are spending this money without clear indication that the demand they want is there. For example, OpenAI at one point claimed that, by now, businesses would be paying them $50k/year for a single ‘instance’ of LLM, good for equivalent to one human headcount.

    They are currently betting that at some point, they’ll effectively fix the lack of actual reasoning (a number of AI enthusiasts will claim that AI can have an entirely distinct thing from any reasoning we have ever known but still call it reasoning, which is a pretty stupid cop out). And/or they’ll translate this reliably to robotics (so far this has ended up being pretty elusive, investors assumed the same fake language that passes for executive-speak means it could apply to menial manual labor, but it hasn’t worked yet).

    But yeah, refraining from using these services would deflate the expectations more quickly, enough people toying around with it sparks the imagination of what the execs think they can get for it…





  • One thing is that America hasn’t given a new presidency to the same party that held the office since the 1980s, at there’s already a tendency to waffle back and forth.

    Trump got through the GOP primaries by virtue of energizing the racist hateful folks that people like McCain famously tried to talk down.

    With the general election, people were miffed about Bernie, polling told them they could safely sit it out and Trump would still lose, and frankly people didn’t think Trump would be that terrible, even if they didn’t like him.

    His first term made us a laughing stock and inflicted injustice at the border, but was mostly milquetoast otherwise until the pandemic, which tanked any chance at the election

    Then various things contributed to a terrible economy with Biden, so people voted for “different”, and hey, Trump was not great but, pandemic aside, domestic situation wasn’t so bad…

    So now here we are, an administration totally off the leash…