I think we can expect Iran to just keep on fighting back, but who I’m REALLY looking at now is Pakistan. They said that if anyone attacked Iran besides Israel, they would enter the war on the side of Iran. Even if America’s participation in the war stopped here (not fucking likely) if Pakistan follows through with their threat then this escalation really, honest to God, could be the start of WW3.
Because here’s the thing: India has been trying to goad Pakistan into their own war for a few months now. So here’s my prediction, although be warned it gets a little crazy after the first 5 points:
Pakistan attacks Israel as an ally of Iran
India attacks Pakistan as an ally of Israel
Afghanistan supports Pakistan with supplies and possibly troops, out of fear of India
Israel continues to pressure Trump, who supports Israel the way the USA (used to) support Ukraine. But direct action is possible, as seen today.
European support for Israel disintegrates, and they focus on Ukraine.
Russia declares support for Israel. Now Afghanistan has aggressors to the North (Russia) and India (South) albeit with a buffer country in both directions. They’re highly motivated to support both buffer countries, but also wary of the USA coming after them (again).
Europe can no longer simply ignore Israel as it has become a second front in the war for Ukraine.
Kazakhstan declares allyship with Afghanistan because they understand that Russia has to go through them to get to Afghanistan and they really really don’t want that.
Russian allies (Turkey, Belarús, Hungary) hamper the EU response.
Trump takes advantage and makes a play for Greenland and Panama.
NATO invokes Article 5 against the USA, uses this to justify attacking Russia (who is now aligned with the USA via Israel) directly IF they didn’t decide to focus on America first (likely).
Canada is part of NATO, talks Mexico into joining against the USA because it’s the only way they stand a chance.
China grasps at the opportunity to seize Taiwan and cement its claim to South China Sea.
Japan, South Korea, and most is Southeast Asia and the South Pacific band together against China to drive them out of the South China Sea and Taiwan.
Egypt and neighboring countries take strict control of the Red Sea, denying passage to ships belonging to Israel/Russia/China/et allies.
Ultimately, the two sides:
THE AGGRESSORS
Israel
Russia
India
America
Hungary
Turkey
Belarús
North Korea
China
THE RESPONSE
Iran
Pakistan
Afghanistan
The EU (and the UK)
Egypt and neighbors
Canada
Mexico
Japan
South Korea
Most/all of Southeast Asia and the South Pacific
South Africa
Oddly I see Australia sitting this one out, as their politics are far enough right to not want to go to war with their traditional allies (eg, the USA) but not left enough to support the response in any meaningful way. Something would have to force their involvement.
As for Central and South America, it’s a mixed bag. Obviously some countries like El Salvador will support Trump, but I think most of them will defend Panama if they get involved at all. I certainly can’t see Argentina and Chile being ok with just letting anybody pass Cape Horn.
Africa I just have no fucking clue. China has been involved in a lot of African countries in very big ways that the African countries aren’t entirely happy about. They could take advantage of the circumstances to seize and nationalize Chinese assets within their borders, which puts them at odds with China/Russia/Israel/et allies and I think they would be pretty ok with that. South Africa in particular I think may take a more active role against the aggressors, given their position controlling the Cape of Good Hope.
Tldr if this plays out anything even remotely like what I’ve written here, and I really REALLY how it doesn’t, we’re all VERY FUCKED.
(This is a work of total conjecture, I’m probably wrong, so don’t waste your breath telling me I’m wrong. That said some of my logic may not be obvious, so I’m happy to answer questions to clarify my thoughts)
Yeah and I just saw (after writing all that!) that Russia and China had warned the USA to not attack Iran, so I could absolutely be way off base there.
Edit: the logic had more to do with Russia’s ambitions to reform their lost empire. Afaik it’s widely believed that after Ukraine, Russia will go for Kazakhstan and possibly Afghanistan. It’s less that I see Russia siding with the USA and Israel, and more that I think Russia will be opportunistic in its military expansion.
My logic was exactly what I said it was. I never claimed it was good logic. And I never claimed to be psychic and magically understand what other people’s logic is despite them plainly saying their logic is something else. But if that’s what makes you feel superior enough to get through the day then you do you.
You’re psychologizing. Russia as a nation does not have a psychological need to reestablish it’s former Tsarist empire. It’s entire aim militarily is to prevent encirclement by the US.
It’s not just conjecture, it’s complete delusion. Pakistan never committed to put feet on the ground for Iran. It would be beyond idiotic considering the state the country is already in.
And even if all logic died and Pakistan somehow sent military support, Israel and the US are more than capable enough to handle it themselves. They don’t need India’s support and India, being the world’s poster child for non-alignment, won’t give it even if asked anyway.
It might be hard to understand but India has unironically been friendly with both Iran and Israel at the same time.
I think we can expect Iran to just keep on fighting back, but who I’m REALLY looking at now is Pakistan. They said that if anyone attacked Iran besides Israel, they would enter the war on the side of Iran. Even if America’s participation in the war stopped here (not fucking likely) if Pakistan follows through with their threat then this escalation really, honest to God, could be the start of WW3.
Because here’s the thing: India has been trying to goad Pakistan into their own war for a few months now. So here’s my prediction, although be warned it gets a little crazy after the first 5 points:
Ultimately, the two sides:
THE AGGRESSORS
THE RESPONSE
Oddly I see Australia sitting this one out, as their politics are far enough right to not want to go to war with their traditional allies (eg, the USA) but not left enough to support the response in any meaningful way. Something would have to force their involvement.
As for Central and South America, it’s a mixed bag. Obviously some countries like El Salvador will support Trump, but I think most of them will defend Panama if they get involved at all. I certainly can’t see Argentina and Chile being ok with just letting anybody pass Cape Horn.
Africa I just have no fucking clue. China has been involved in a lot of African countries in very big ways that the African countries aren’t entirely happy about. They could take advantage of the circumstances to seize and nationalize Chinese assets within their borders, which puts them at odds with China/Russia/Israel/et allies and I think they would be pretty ok with that. South Africa in particular I think may take a more active role against the aggressors, given their position controlling the Cape of Good Hope.
Tldr if this plays out anything even remotely like what I’ve written here, and I really REALLY how it doesn’t, we’re all VERY FUCKED.
(This is a work of total conjecture, I’m probably wrong, so don’t waste your breath telling me I’m wrong. That said some of my logic may not be obvious, so I’m happy to answer questions to clarify my thoughts)
I’ll still tell you: You’re the wrongest I’ve ever seen
Have you ever taken even a single look at the real world?
Placing the US, Russia and China as allies during a hypothetical WWIII? That’s a VERY bold claim.
Also, really doubt the EU could use NATO to declare war on the US, as the US are still the vast majority of NATO’s firepower and command.
Yeah and I just saw (after writing all that!) that Russia and China had warned the USA to not attack Iran, so I could absolutely be way off base there.
Edit: the logic had more to do with Russia’s ambitions to reform their lost empire. Afaik it’s widely believed that after Ukraine, Russia will go for Kazakhstan and possibly Afghanistan. It’s less that I see Russia siding with the USA and Israel, and more that I think Russia will be opportunistic in its military expansion.
Whenever you see this phrase, it’s going to followed by nonsense nobody serious believes.
The logic is that you went “oh, China and Russia are bad guy countries, so they’ll go on the bad guy team, just like in the comic books!”
My logic was exactly what I said it was. I never claimed it was good logic. And I never claimed to be psychic and magically understand what other people’s logic is despite them plainly saying their logic is something else. But if that’s what makes you feel superior enough to get through the day then you do you.
You’re psychologizing. Russia as a nation does not have a psychological need to reestablish it’s former Tsarist empire. It’s entire aim militarily is to prevent encirclement by the US.
Despite Western war propaganda to the contrary, Russia doesn’t presently have expansionist ambitions. Previously. Previously. Previously.
It’s not just conjecture, it’s complete delusion. Pakistan never committed to put feet on the ground for Iran. It would be beyond idiotic considering the state the country is already in.
And even if all logic died and Pakistan somehow sent military support, Israel and the US are more than capable enough to handle it themselves. They don’t need India’s support and India, being the world’s poster child for non-alignment, won’t give it even if asked anyway.
It might be hard to understand but India has unironically been friendly with both Iran and Israel at the same time.
Australia will fall in line behind the US because we always fucking do like a bunch of patsies.
We have no record of Pakistan saying that. Iran claimed Pakistan said that.
But in terms of what we do know Pakistan is doing, is it nominates Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize.
Europe and Canada would never ally with Iran.
pakistan will do fuck all. Talking shit is cheap, actually goto war will not happen
do pakistan has weapons to reach israel? and maintain offence for a week?
where’s pakistan gonna buy weapons from, china?
Not only does Pakistan have weapons to reach Israel, it has nuclear weapons to reach it.
Also, Pakistan borders Iran, which means together they could move such weapons much closer to Israel.